Rising pupil population – the real issue facing schools

Updated 11th December 2010

There is a new link on the DfE statistics website that projects pupil numbers through to 2018. The numbers are similarly concerning, especially when you consider that the government are directly linking numbers to migration (sheet 3). Even with zero migration there is a considerable upswing in Primary schools but there must be concern that there is such a link made between school capacity and migration. Are we heading down a dark road?

New link is here:

http://bit.ly/eWNne9

******End of Update 11th December 2010*******

This week the DfE published School Capacity figures for 2009/2010 which for the first time included pupil forecasts from Local Authorities. The figures are pretty amazing and indicate that population growth will impact massively on primary schools over the next 4 to 5 years.

Raw Data
The link to the raw data is here. http://bit.ly/hsQ5PT.

Headlines – All figures for England Only

• There are currently 259,000 surplus places in England.
• This will fall to just 65,000 surplus places in 2013 (a rise in population of almost 200k).

It’s a regional thing …

• Shropshire has the biggest surplus of over 5000 places.
• Barking and Dagenham has 3,245 deficit places (so 3245 pupils with no places).

And the future is going to be tough …

• An increase of 265,000 primary pupils in 2013/4 – up 7% from today.
• At an average of £4500 per pupil, that’s an extra £1.2bn per annum just to stand still!

Addressing the issue

Though there are a couple of cursory messages in The Importance of Teaching (#eduwhitepaper) to ‘rising primary pupil numbers’, a 7% increase in children going to Primary school over the next 3 years will have a dramatic impact on class sizes, the appeals process and education resourcing across the board. Unless there is some coherent approach (which, I am afraid probably doesn’t focus on schools sports and other peripheral issues) we are in real danger of having a generation of children schooled in over-crowded schools far from their community. And I just don’t think Free Schools are going to do it. What we need is real and rising investment in the education of our children from Primary school through to University, especially if we are to retain our position in the G20 and as a centre for business and creativity.

… answers on a tweet to @educationgovuk.

Filed under: Blog entries by ben